Incentive Premiums by ETTSI

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I’ve been accused of being overly optimistic about the future. The business I’m in; Travel Certificates, Sales Incentives and Employee Rewards, is all about optimism. Personally I don’t know how it’s possible to be any other way when you consider the options. I know some people love Chicken Little and see every sign as one that points to the end but I just prefer to look at my glass as half full with the potential for filling more and more until is spills over. I’ve got a lot of work to do to fulfill my predictions not to mention pleasing all the people depending on me so I have to stay motivated. Being optimistic make this a lot easier. Never the less, I can’t even begin to consider a scenario where things don’t always have the potential to get better, but for all of you who still don’t believe that there are good times just ahead, I do have some evidence for you to consider.

1). High end real estate is selling again. Now I know that just last month they said that foreclosures were at an all time high but something is happening in the high end real estate, especially the second home market, that is signaling that housing is about to rebound. All it will take to get things going again is a consensus that the bottom has been reached and that if we don’t grab up these bargains now they will be gone forever. High end real estate is the first place this happens and then it snowballs to lower priced rental properties and then residential homes. Here in Daytona, luxury condos on the beach and water front properties are Hot, Hot, Hot! Look out below!

2). Americans will soon have to start buying cars again.This is just an inevitable fact. On average, people hold on to their cars about 3 to 4 years. This statistic has been growing longer for over 2 years now adding about 4 to 6 months to that number. People hold onto their cars until they believe that they will cost more to maintain than to get a new one with a bumper to bumper warrantee. New is always better but uncertainty causes you to be hesitant until faced with a major repair. Then your outlook on the future changes from long term to short term.

Cash for Clunkers took a lot of cars off the road but that’s just the surface. We have been salvaging 10 million cars a year more than we are making. That means that a critical mass of pent up demand is forming with a dramatically reduced supply and when people start looking for that “good used car” they will be paying a premium price for it if they can find one. This also means trade in values are going up bringing new cars more within reach so it’s safe to predict that showrooms will be humming again very soon.

3). Politicians are talking about cutting spending again. I remember vividly when then President Bush came on the television and announced that we were going broke. What was Mr. Bush’s answer to the problem? Spend a couple trillion dollars real quick. Now the only one I know that does something like that is a person who knows they are going to file bankruptcy so they go out and buy everything they want on credit knowing they will never have to pay for it. I knew at that time we were in big trouble and, like many others, I started reining in my spending right then - probably contributing to the depth of the problem.

Well, it seems the beltway boys and girls are waking up after the party to see the mess they’ve made and have realized it’s time to start cleaning things up. Politicians will do what politicians do and it will probably be very little and a bit too late but we can relax a bit if it appears that there will be some attempt to save the national trust. A pro field goal kicker can kick the ball through the uprights every time if the breeze is calm and he doesn’t have almost a dozen giants running at him with the intent to break every bone in his body! Same goes with running a business while facing the uncertainty of our economy.

I'm no economist but I know that every time politicians start talking about reducing the deficit and lowering taxes, the economy rebounds. The positive change in tone from our leaders demonstrating a desire to help small businesses (or the unwillingness to do any more harm), will put the competitive sprit back in the boardroom again and then the economy will start to take off pretty much all by itself.

Tags: economy, employee rewards, evidence, motivation, optimism, recession, travel certificates